Last week, national security agencies from the Five Eyes—that’s the rich, English-language-speaking countries club—jointly released a statement warning of the increasing cyber risks of AI models: in particular, their ability to autonomously hack into systems and networks. The statement was more measured than some of the breathless headlines about it, and the advice they gave is pretty much the standard advice everyone gives—albeit with newfound urgency.

Internet risks are nothing new, and cyberattacks—both large and small—have been a significant issue since long before the current crop of generative AI models.

What’s been changing over the decades, and what AI is changing even faster, is the gap between skill and ability. For most of human history, the two terms were synonymous—but computers have decoupled them. As the gap between the two expands, humans empowered with these AI tools can do more: more writing, more research, more analysis and also more damage than ever before. These models can, with little detailed direction, autonomously hack into networks, steal data, deploy ransomware and destroy systems. And to the extent there is a solution, it’s going to involve harnessing AI for the defense.

In 1998, seven people from the hacker group L0pht testified before Congress. They told a mostly clueless Senate committee that they could take down the internet in 30 minutes. That was partly real and partly bravado, but it illustrates an important point: hacking into systems, stealing data and causing damage all required skill.

Contrast the L0pht hackers with hackers derided as “script kiddies.” They didn’t understand computers, or security. Instead, they used hacker tools written by others. Their actions required minimal skill and even less knowledge. But once those hacking tools became widespread, the number of potential attackers increased.

That number has continued to increase, as quality and availability of prewritten attack tools has grown. And it is growing dramatically with AI. Today’s AI systems—not just the frontier models, but most of them—are capable of carrying out cyberattacks automatically. They all do better in the hands of skilled attackers, but increasingly they are able to act autonomously with only minimal prompting.

The thing about people with ability but no skill is that they are often outsiders, not part of any professional community, and not bound by any rules or norms. This phenomenon is much more general than in cybersecurity. Any doctor can tell you how to untraceably poison someone, and many virus researchers know how to create a bioweapon. Any bridge engineer can tell you how to place explosives to blow a bridge up. The reason that murderous doctors and terrorist engineers are so rare is that the lengthy process of acquiring those skills also instills a moral and ethical code. If every random person has access to good poisoning advice, that puts us all in danger.

Modern AI systems are, in effect, a universal adviser to help people do harmful things. And while the current AI megacorporations are trying to build guardrails to prevent people from asking questions whose answers will enable the questioner to do harm, that’s not going to work in the long term. Smaller, cheaper, open-source models, including models that can run on people’s computers, and especially groups of models that run in concert with each other, are just as good as the frontier models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. And they continue to get better. These models will be passed around from person to person, like script kiddie hacker tools, and they won’t have any such guardrails.

Instructing AI models to spy on people and report any malicious prompts to the authorities fails for similar reasons. The megacorporations can do that, but the locally run open source models won’t. This could buy us a few months at best.

A third possibility is to somehow make the models themselves unable to hack into computers, create bioweapons or do anything else that might harm people or society. That won’t work, for the same reason we can’t teach doctors how to treat poisonings without also teaching them how to poison. It’s the same knowledge. It’s the same with construction and demolition. And it’s the same with cybersecurity. We want these AI models to be able to review computer code, find vulnerabilities and automatically fix them. The benefit to our collective security will be enormous. Unfortunately, the same knowledge can be used for attacks.

Where this leaves us is in a world of increased volatility. Super-powered humans with AI assistants will be able to do both wonderful and horrible things.

This brings us back to the Five Eyes statement. Everything they recommend is something security professionals have been recommending for years, if not decades. They are things talked about at that congressional hearing back in 1998, titled “Weak computer security in government: Is the public at risk?” Even the Five Eyes admitted that their security advice is not new, only more urgent.

What’s new is how fast things are changing: “The rapid pace of frontier AI development means cyber risk assumptions can become outdated in months, not years. We must act before and be prepared to adapt and withstand evolving threats.” The Five Eyes point to AI technology—not necessarily chatbots, but AI more generally—being used to strengthen every aspect of defense, to “detect vulnerabilities earlier, improve software quality, monitor unusual behavior, and respond faster to incidents—reducing both the cost and impact of incidents.”

Excellent advice from the Five Eyes security agencies. We need to do this with every risk that AI heightens, not just cybersecurity.

This essay was originally published in The Guardian.

On June 9th, Anthropic released its Fable generative AI model. Three days later, the US government classified it as a dangerous munition, and used its export-control authority to prohibit any foreign nationals from accessing it. Unable to differentiate between Americans and foreigners, the company shut off access for everyone.

The government’s actions won’t help. The problem isn’t any one particular model; it’s the general trend of increasing AI capabilities. And any real solution requires the sort of collective action that just isn’t possible right now.

Fable is the constrained version of Mythos, the AI model Anthropic announced in April. Anthropic only released it to a few selected organizations, because the company claimed it was so good at finding and exploiting vulnerabilities in computer code that releasing it more generally would be dangerous.

It was an obviously self-serving announcement, and because few were able to verify Anthropic’s claims they were met with some skepticism. Those with access used Mythos to find and patch many vulnerabilities in their own software. But one UK group found the latest, already public, OpenAI model to be just as powerful.

Fable is just another incremental improvement in the years-long climb of AI capabilities. But just as important as the AI model is the “harness.” This is typically not AI. It’s ordinary computer code that interfaces with the user. It stitches together AI models, decides how and for what purposes they can be used, and gives them useful tools such as web search and the ability to run their own computer code.

When Mythos first entered limited release, there was widespread debate whether its power came from the model or the harness. With Mythos demonstrating that it was possible, the open-source community scrambled to build harnesses that could steer other AI models towards similar capabilities. Harness improvements don’t need massive data or data centers.

They largely succeeded. For example, a Prague company was able to replicate Anthropic’s few verifiable cybersecurity capabilities with a much smaller and cheaper model—and a more sophisticated harness. Last week, a group showed that multiple cheaper models harnessed in concert matches Fable’s performance.

The broader community had only a few days with Fable, but that time we learned some about its capabilities. Its difference is less the new model’s raw analytical and problem solving capabilities, and more that the model doesn’t need that sophisticated harness.

Fable requires much less expertise and detailed prompting from the human user. You can give it a difficult goal and it will figure out novel and unexpected ways to satisfy it, finding loopholes in whatever constraints you or the system have imposed on it.

“Relentlessly proactive” is how AI researcher Simon Willison described it. Another descriptor might be “creative.” Experienced AI developers have had that combination of creativity and proactivity since last year, but Fable puts it within easy reach of everyone.

In the hands of someone with a legitimate problem that needs solving, that can be an incredibly useful capability. But in the hands of someone who wants to do harm, it can be equally dangerous. AIs don’t have a moral compass in the same way that people do. They are agents of the wants and desires of the people who prompt them.

That points to the real problem with relentlessly proactive AI. In language, wants and desires are always underspecified. If I ask you to get me some coffee, you would probably pour me a cup from the coffeepot, or buy one from a nearby coffee shop.

You couldn’t buy me a pound of raw beans, or a coffee plantation. You wouldn’t order a cup of coffee for delivery next month. You wouldn’t find a nearby person, rip a cup of coffee out of their hands, and bring it to me. I wouldn’t have to specify any of the million limitations to my request; you would just know.

Human stories are filled with warnings about underspecified desires. King Midas wished that everything he touch turn to gold, forgetting to add “but not my food, drink, and daughter.” And genies are notorious for granting your wish in a way you wish they hadn’t.

The deeper point is that it’s impossible to list all limitations and restrictions, and like a malicious genie, a creative AI will find the ones you forgot. Block a database you don’t want it to have access to, and it might figure out how to bypass your control. Ask it to book a flight, and it might hack the airline because the website says the flight is sold out. Ask it to save money on your cellphone plan, and it might cancel it altogether—or get someone else to pay for it. As far as we know now AI has not done any of this yet, but you get the idea.

Malicious intent is not required. To an AI model, constraints are just things to get around and not general truisms about the world. They are creative problem solvers and natural rule breakers. They “hack” in the sense that they find and exploit loopholes.

Human systems rely on so many norms that we scarcely recognize the existence of until they are broken. AIs naturally think outside the box, because they don’t have any real conception of what the box is or why it’s there in the first place.

There is no foolproof way to prevent people from using AI models to complete harmful tasks. There is no way to prevent the models from incidentally causing harm while completing benign tasks. AI models are no longer isolated from the real world. They browse the internet and answer emails.

They trade stocks and make purchases. They control physical systems. They are, in effect, robots that affect life and property. We have no technical mechanisms to verify the integrity of an AI system. This level of capability and creativity in the hands of us untrustworthy humans will have both great and terrible results.

The problem is not unique to Anthropic. Mythos/Fable might currently be the most capable rules hacker, but more sophisticated harnesses give other models similar capabilities. And we should assume that the other frontier models are no more than a few months behind, and that open-source models are less than a year behind. At best, any ban only serves to delay the problem for a short while.

That delay might be useful if we—as a society, as a planet—would use that time to come together and figure out what to do. This isn’t a US/China arms race problem; this a species-level problem that requires coordinated action at that scale. Unfortunately, we have no mechanism to do that. I first wrote about this problem five years ago, but it was all too futuristic.

Today, when its right in front of us, there is no world government that can impose constraints on the for-profit corporations currently controlling AI models and research. The US has no appetite to effectively and even-handedly regulate those corporations, even as they do catastrophic damage to the environment, democracy, and—in this case—society in general.

This all makes an AI public option all the more necessary, and urgent. Today’s AIs can be fast, smart and secure, but only two of the three are possible for any given system. These safety tradeoffs are tightly held secrets of companies racing to beat one another, and they tell us we have to trust them. Instead, the choices and their consequences need to be brought out into the sunlight.

We should be funding open-source harnesses that balance capability and safety—that achieve useful goals without so much power—and open-source AI models whose provenance and biases are public and well understood. We have opened the AI Pandora’s box. Now we have to make the best of it.

This essay originally appeared in The Guardian.

AI is rapidly changing how software is written, deployed, and used. Trends point to a future where AIs can write custom software quickly and easily: "instant software." Taken to an extreme, it might become easier for a user to have an AI write an application on demand—a spreadsheet, for example—and delete it when you’re done using it than to buy one commercially. Future systems could include a mix: both traditional long-term software and ephemeral instant software that is constantly being written, deployed, modified, and deleted.

AI is changing cybersecurity as well. In particular, AI systems are getting better at finding and patching vulnerabilities in code. This has implications for both attackers and defenders, depending on the ways this and related technologies improve.

In this essay, I want to take an optimistic view of AI’s progress, and to speculate what AI-dominated cybersecurity in an age of instant software might look like. There are a number of unknowns that will factor into how the arms race between attacker and defender might play out.

How flaw discovery might work

On the attacker side, the ability of AIs to automatically find and exploit vulnerabilities has increased dramatically over the past few months. We are already seeing both government and criminal hackers using AI to attack systems. The exploitation part is critical here, because it gives an unsophisticated attacker capabilities far beyond their understanding. As AIs get better, expect more attackers to automate their attacks using AI. And as individuals and organizations can increasingly run powerful AI models locally, AI companies monitoring and disrupting malicious AI use will become increasingly irrelevant.

Expect open-source software, including open-source libraries incorporated in proprietary software, to be the most targeted, because vulnerabilities are easier to find in source code. Unknown No. 1 is how well AI vulnerability discovery tools will work against closed-source commercial software packages. I believe they will soon be good enough to find vulnerabilities just by analyzing a copy of a shipped product, without access to the source code. If that’s true, commercial software will be vulnerable as well.

Particularly vulnerable will be software in IoT devices: things like internet-connected cars, refrigerators, and security cameras. Also industrial IoT software in our internet-connected power grid, oil refineries and pipelines, chemical plants, and so on. IoT software tends to be of much lower quality, and industrial IoT software tends to be legacy.

Instant software is differently vulnerable. It’s not mass market. It’s created for a particular person, organization, or network. The attacker generally won’t have access to any code to analyze, which makes it less likely to be exploited by external attackers. If it’s ephemeral, any vulnerabilities will have a short lifetime. But lots of instant software will live on networks for a long time. And if it gets uploaded to shared tool libraries, attackers will be able to download and analyze that code.

All of this points to a future where AIs will become powerful tools of cyberattack, able to automatically find and exploit vulnerabilities in systems worldwide.

Automating patch creation

But that’s just half of the arms race. Defenders get to use AI, too. These same AI vulnerability-finding technologies are even more valuable for defense. When the defensive side finds an exploitable vulnerability, it can patch the code and deny it to attackers forever.

How this works in practice depends on another related capability: the ability of AIs to patch vulnerable software, which is closely related to their ability to write secure code in the first place.

AIs are not very good at this today; the instant software that AIs create is generally filled with vulnerabilities, both because AIs write insecure code and because the people vibe coding don’t understand security. OpenClaw is a good example of this.

Unknown No. 2 is how much better AIs will get at writing secure code. The fact that they’re trained on massive corpuses of poorly written and insecure code is a handicap, but they are getting better. If they can reliably write vulnerability-free code, it would be an enormous advantage for the defender. And AI-based vulnerability-finding makes it easier for an AI to train on writing secure code.

We can envision a future where AI tools that find and patch vulnerabilities are part of the typical software development process. We can’t say that the code would be vulnerability-free—that’s an impossible goal—but it could be without any easily findable vulnerabilities. If the technology got really good, the code could become essentially vulnerability-free.

Patching lags and legacy software

For new software—both commercial and instant—this future favors the defender. For commercial and conventional open-source software, it’s not that simple. Right now, the world is filled with legacy software. Much of it—like IoT device software—has no dedicated security team to update it. Sometimes it is incapable of being patched. Just as it’s harder for AIs to find vulnerabilities when they don’t have access to the source code, it’s harder for AIs to patch software when they are not embedded in the development process.

I’m not as confident that AI systems will be able to patch vulnerabilities as easily as they can find them, because patching often requires more holistic testing and understanding. That’s Unknown No. 3: how quickly AIs will be able to create reliable software updates for the vulnerabilities they find, and how quickly customers can update their systems.

Today, there is a time lag between when a vendor issues a patch and customers install that update. That time lag is even longer for large organizational software; the risk of an update breaking the underlying software system is just too great for organizations to roll out updates without testing them first. But if AI can help speed up that process, by writing patches faster and more reliably, and by testing them in some AI-generated twin environment, the advantage goes to the defender. If not, the attacker will still have a window to attack systems until a vulnerability is patched.

Toward self-healing

In a truly optimistic future, we can imagine a self-healing network. AI agents continuously scan the ever-evolving corpus of commercial and custom AI-generated software for vulnerabilities, and automatically patch them on discovery.

For that to work, software license agreements will need to change. Right now, software vendors control the cadence of security patches. Giving software purchasers this ability has implications about compatibility, the right to repair, and liability. Any solutions here are the realm of policy, not tech.

If the defense can find, but can’t reliably patch, flaws in legacy software, that’s where attackers will focus their efforts. If that’s the case, we can imagine a continuously evolving AI-powered intrusion detection, continuously scanning inputs and blocking malicious attacks before they get to vulnerable software. Not as transformative as automatically patching vulnerabilities in running code, but nevertheless valuable.

The power of these defensive AI systems increases if they are able to coordinate with each other, and share vulnerabilities and updates. A discovery by one AI can quickly spread to everyone using the affected software. Again: Advantage defender.

There are other variables to consider. The relative success of attackers and defenders also depends on how plentiful vulnerabilities are, how easy they are to find, whether AIs will be able to find the more subtle and obscure vulnerabilities, and how much coordination there is among different attackers. All this comprises Unknown No. 4.

Vulnerability economics

Presumably, AIs will clean up the obvious stuff first, which means that any remaining vulnerabilities will be subtle. Finding them will take AI computing resources. In the optimistic scenario, defenders pool resources through information sharing, effectively amortizing the cost of defense. If information sharing doesn’t work for some reason, defense becomes much more expensive, as individual defenders will need to do their own research. But instant software means much more diversity in code: an advantage to the defender.

This needs to be balanced with the relative cost of attackers finding vulnerabilities. Attackers already have an inherent way to amortize the costs of finding a new vulnerability and create a new exploit. They can vulnerability hunt cross-platform, cross-vendor, and cross-system, and can use what they find to attack multiple targets simultaneously. Fixing a common vulnerability often requires cooperation among all the relevant platforms, vendors, and systems. Again, instant software is an advantage to the defender.

But those hard-to-find vulnerabilities become more valuable. Attackers will attempt to do what the major intelligence agencies do today: find "nobody but us" zero-day exploits. They will either use them slowly and sparingly to minimize detection or quickly and broadly to maximize profit before they’re patched. Meanwhile, defenders will be both vulnerability hunting and intrusion detecting, with the goal of patching vulnerabilities before the attackers find them.

We can even imagine a market for vulnerability sharing, where the defender who finds a vulnerability and creates a patch is compensated by everyone else in the information-sharing/repair network. This might be a stretch, but maybe.

Up the stack

Even in the most optimistic future, attackers aren’t going to just give up. They will attack the non-software parts of the system, such as the users. Or they’re going to look for loopholes in the system: things that the system technically allows but were unintended and unanticipated by the designers—whether human or AI—and can be used by attackers to their advantage.

What’s left in this world are attacks that don’t depend on finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities, like social engineering and credential stealing attacks. And we have already seen how AI-generated deepfakes make social engineering easier. But here, too, we can imagine defensive AI agents that monitor users’ behaviors, watching for signs of attack. This is another AI use case, and one that I’m not even sure how to think about in terms of the attacker/defender arms race. But at least we’re pushing attacks up the stack.

Also, attackers will attempt to infiltrate and influence defensive AIs and the networks they use to communicate, poisoning their output and degrading their capabilities. AI systems are vulnerable to all sorts of manipulations, such as prompt injection, and it’s unclear whether we will ever be able to solve that. This is Unknown No. 5, and it’s a biggie. There might always be a "trusting trust problem."

No future is guaranteed. We truly don’t know whether these technologies will continue to improve and when they will plateau. But given the pace at which AI software development has improved in just the past few months, we need to start thinking about how cybersecurity works in this instant software world.

This essay originally appeared in CSO.

EDITED TO ADD: Two essays published after I wrote this. Both are good illustrations of where we are regarding AI vulnerability discovery. Things are changing very fast.